Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.